The 2004 Baseline Survey on Millennium Development Goals in AACs
Chapter 6 Faisalabad, Pakistan
2.8. Demographic Studies
2.9. Population of the City
2.10. Population Growth
2.11. Population of Pakistan
3.1. Eradication of Extreme Poverty and Hunger
3.2. Achieve Universal Primary Education
3.3. Promote Gender Equality
3.4. Resuce Child Mortality
3.5. Improve Maternal Health and HIV/AIDS prevention
3.6. Other Related Health Issues
3.7. Ensure Environmental Sustainability
In 2000 the United Nations convened a major meeting to establish certain goals on human welfare and sustainable development. The meeting concluded with the acceptance of a series of goals, the Millennium Development Goals, which member nations agreed to work toward achievement by the year 2015. The first seven, for which specific targets and indicators have been established, are listed briefly as follows:
The nine AUICK Associate Cities (AACs) have undertaken to survey their cities to establish where they are on these MDGs, and to attempt to outline a process for working toward the achievement of the MDGs. Each city also agreed to provide a review of its special conditions and administration, identify some of its best practices, and state its priorities for future development.
The following is the report for Faisalabad City on these objectives. It was recognized at the outset that the nine AACs will surely be in different positions on the MDGs, and that many or all will face important data problems in carrying out this survey. The report for Faisalabad will note both the city’s current conditions and past progress, and note the data shortages that prohibit a full realization of the aims of the baseline survey.
Despite the data problems, however, we believe it is useful to state where Faisalabad is at this time and to help chart a future program to promote the MDG achievement.
We begin with a history of Faisalabad, which is a relatively new city, then review its physical condition: from geology to climate and topography. We then examine the basic population data, followed by a review of progress on those MDG conditions for which we have data.
Faisalabad city previously known as Lyallpur was established as a Mandi Town in 1895 as a part of the program of colonization of West Punjab. It was formerly a part of Tehsil Jhang of Multan Division. Because of the fact that most of the area was un-cultivated and there were no regular crops, it served the purpose of only a meadow for the cattle of the indigence. The opening of Lower Chenab Canal in 1892 and its extension to the area in the form of Rakh Branch, Jhang Branch and Gogerah Branch coupled with the introduction of a Canal Irrigation system, brought the whole area under regular cultivation. The city was named in honor of Sir James Lyall, the then lieutenant Governor of the Punjab. The design of the Town was prepared by Mr. Young and it was further improved by Sir Gunga Ram, a renowned Town Planner of the time. It was laid down on a parcel of land measuring 110 acres in a square from with eight bazaars radiating from the central Clock Tower.
The first prominent building of the area was the construction of Deputy Commissioner House which was built after its up gradation as the headquarter of newly founded District. It was followed by the Qaisri Gate in 1898, Clock Tower in 1905 to 1913 and subsequently District Board and Municipal Town Hall Building. A Railway Line was developed in 1910 connecting Faisalabad with Lahore via Sangla Hill. The first settlement of the Town was Douglus Pura which was established in 1920. The area of industrialization started in the city after 1930 and Lyallpur cotton Mills was completed in 1934. Three other Industrial Projects namely Ganesh Flour and General Mills, Tata Cotton Factory and Lal Flour Mills (presently colony Flour Mills) were established during the period 1930-40. Other Mohallas like Sant Pura, Harcharn Pura, Pertab Nagar, Dhobi Ghat, Gujjar Basti, Gurunanik Pura, etc. emerged on the scene thereafter. The Faisalabad City had spread over an area of three square miles. Rapid urban growth was experienced by the unprecedented influx of refugees from India after independence. It then covered an area of 9.7 square miles. In 1951 the Government of Pakistan made a plan to boost industrial activities and Faisalabad was declared an Industrial Zone with certain incentives such as tax holidays etc. and thus Koh-I-Noor Textile Mills, Crescent Textile Mills, Premier Textile Mills, Nishat Textile Mills, Zeenat Textile Mills and some other Prominent Industrial Units were established. Municipal limits were extended further and Municipal area was measured as 29.12 square miles. At present the Municipal area is about 35 square miles. The fundamental motive behind the establishment of city was to serve as center for the marketing of agriculture produce of the area. After 1930, when it gained the status of Semi Industrial Town, the marketing of industrial products was started and commercial establishments came into existence. After 1951 the industrialization took place very rapidly and now it is Pakistan’s largest Industrial Town after Karachi. There has been uneven growth in all the three sectors namely housing, commerce and industry. The city population was 179,000 in 1951 and increased to 425,248 in 1961. In the 1972 census, the population of the city was 864,000 and it ranked as the 3rd largest city of Pakistan. It exceeded the mark of one million (1,092,000) in the 1981 census; though the Faisalabad Development Authority counted a population of 1,232,000.
The City Municipal Committee was upgraded to a Municipal Corporation in 1972. The status of the Town was raised to a Divisional Head quarters of the newly founded Division w.e.f. on January 7,1982. Since Faisalabad City is of recent origin, it does not possess a large number of buildings of historic nature and architectural importance. The buildings of public interest are listed as such. (A) Clock Tower (B) Qaisri Gate (C) Canopy Victoria Memorial Chowk (D) Canopy of Company Bagh. (E) Old Campus University of Agriculture, (F) Minaret of Old Hindu Mundar. The urban sprawl has been divided into four periods i.e. from 1900, 1900 to 1947 to 1965, to 1985 and 1990-2000. The city experienced rapid but uneven physical growth during 1947 to 2000 substantiated by increased industrialization process. The city could not grow to the south and eastern side during 1900 to 1947 due to such barriers like Railway Line and R.B. Canal. The City on these sides started to sprawl with the development of overhead bridges on the level crossings and improvement of bridges on R.B. Canal. It is evident that the natural trend of growth is more towards North-West and South West directions. Presently, the nature of the city is industrial with growing commercial activities.
The city is located on the “Bar Upland” which is relatively older alluvium deposit as found in the central part of the Doad. Because of its elevation above the bordering flood plains, the upland is generally beyond the reach of flood spills, which is the significant physiographic feature of the alluvial plan. Like other Punjab plains, the alluvium is quaternary and has been deposited on semi-consolidated tertiary rocks or on a basement of metamorphic and igneous rocks of Precambrian age. It emanates from the mountain ranges of the north and has been deposited by the present and ancestral streams. The deposition is predominantly fluviatilo sediments.
The sub soils and sub strata encountered in the area have been formed by alluvial deposits transported by ancient streams of the Indus River System. The unconsolidated sediments are to a depth of about 900 feet. The ground water recharge is mainly derived from the seepage of unlined canals, water courses and from irrigation practices. Recharge directly from rainfall is small. Also, some recharge takes place from ponds, water supply and sewerage systems.
The city of Faisalabad with latitude 31°-24’ N and longitude 73°-05’E, lies on the Western side of Lahore, the Provincial Capital of Punjab. It is situated in the middle of the lower part of the Doab with the Chenab river flowing at a distance of about 32.18 kilometers (20 miles) to its west and the Ravi river at a distance of about 138.4 kilometers (86 miles) to its East. The Faisalabad Urban area covers nearly 90.65 square kilometers or 35 square. miles. The city is linked with major urban centers by Roads, Rail and Airway.
The city of Faisalabad is situated in the center of the lower Rachana Doab, the area between Chenab and Ravi rivers, which has a mild slope from North-East to South-West with an average of about 0.2 to 0.3 meter drop per kilometer or about 1 to 1.5 feet per mile. The city is situated at an elevation of about 183.35 meters or 612 feet above the Sea level. The topography is however marked by valleys, local depression and relatively high ground.
The area is semi arid and characterized by large seasonal variations of temperature. The summer season lasts from April to September with an average temperature of 31.25°C (88.25°F). The extreme maximum and minimum temperature in Summer being 48.0°C (118.4°F) and 9.0°C (48.5°F) respectively. During the winter months, the daytime temperature generally ranges between 19.4°C (67.02°F) to 33.9°C (93.02°F) and night temperatures are generally in the range of 4.8°C (40.64°F) to 17.7°C (63.96°F ). Extreme minimum temperature sometimes reaches –2°C (28.4°F). The Western disturbances frequently affect the weather in the cold season also. It generally begins to be active from mid December and has a tendency to concentrate over this region. In the fold of these disturbances some times well marked cold fronts are formed.
Rainfall also varies markedly and its predictably is not certain from year to year. A wet year may be followed by a dry year. Rainfall in the regions mainly occurs in July and August when the monsoon depression travels westward. Precipitation has marked seasonal fluctuation. The average annual rainfall based on the 32 years observation is 384.683 mm (15.145 inches), almost all of which occurs in the two months of July and August.
The Demographic Studies are the major source of any city’s Socio-Economic profile. Demographic Studies relate to population. Population studies are extremely important from Town Planning point of view. Until and unless we know about population in detail we cannot do successful planning. All aspects of population, such as sex-age composition, trend of migration, social, cultural, political, economical and administrative have to be related to planning considerations and decisions. Individuals are the raw material of society, therefore, society is directly affected by size, growth, composition and distribution of it population. The term population refers to the number of individuals living within a geographical area at a given time.
In fact we have very debatable population data of Faisalabad city. The survey carried out by the census department in March, 1981 shows the population of Faisalabad city as 1,092,000, which indicates that growth rate of Faisalabad city is only 3.37 percent per annum. The population of Faisalabad city according to 5 percent sample survey conducted by the Directorate of Structure Plan FDA, in April 1981 was 1,232,000. So the growth rate was estimated as 4.6 percent. The population data given by Faisalabad Municipal Corporation was 1,328,000. The other two sources of population data are the population projections for Faisalabad by the ACE and Registration Office. The ACE’s population projection for Faisalabad for the year 1981 worked out to be 1.3 million. Similarly a survey was carried out by the Registration Office on sampling basis in January, 1977 and the population was estimated as 1,052,000. The growth rate was then calculated to be 4.7 percent per annum. With the same growth rate the population in 1981 comes out to be 1,240,000. These two figures are very near to that of the figure collected by structure Plan Directorate. The population given by census department seems to be underestimated.
The fact of the emergence of Faisalabad as a major Agriculture-cum-Industrial center is reflected by the phenomenal increase in the city’s population. From a population of 69,930 in the year 1941, it suddenly shot up to a figure of 179,000 in the year 1951, an increase of 152.2 percent and the population rose to a future figure of 425,248 in the year 1961, an increase of 137.4 percent. In this manner Faisalabad created a record in the demographic history of Pakistan by registering an overall population increase of 508.1 percent between the year 1941 to 1961, a record un-paralleled by even the largest city in Pakistan today, namely Karachi which recorded an overall increase of 338.8 percent in two decades between 1941 and 1961. Table 6.1 shows the growth rate of Faisalabad City observed in the past and the future.
Table 6.1. Faisalabad population increase
The population growth rate of Faisalabad city was quite high during 1940s to 1970s. That was the period during which population was growing at a very high rate, due to the heavy in migration from India following independence. The 1981 Census shows very slow growth which was very surprising to many demographers and the city officials. Again during 1985 the population was calculated the city government and growth rate was found as 7.2 percent. According to census 1998, the population was recorded about 2 million showing a growth rate about 3 percent. According to some experts, the population of Faisalabad city is growing around 3.5 percent. During 2004, the population of Faisalabad city was around 2.5 million. It is expected that it would grow up to 3.4 million by 2015 keeping population growth rate as 3 percent per year.
The size of the country’s population, its growth rate and its age distribution is important for evaluating the welfare of its citizens, assessing the productivity capacity of its economy, and estimating the quantity of goods and services that will be needed to meet the future needs. Thus governments, businessmen and anyone interested in analyzing economic performance must have accurate population estimates.
Pakistan population in mid of 2004 was estimated at 148.70 million growing at the rate of 1.90 percent. The population was only 32.5 million at the time of independence in 1947 but we added 116 million more people during the last 57 years. Pakistan population has been growing at a decelerating pace. Population growth has decelerated from 3.06 percent in 1981 to 1.90 percent in 2004.
Table 6.2. Pakistan population growth during 1983 to 2004
Figure 6.1 shows the comparative growth of Pakistan and Faisalabad. This makes clear that the two have been very similar in the rate of growth. Pakistan has grown very rapidly over the past half century, and Faisalabad has been an integral part of that growth.
Figure 6.1. Population growth in Pakistan and Faisalabad
It took almost 23 years for population growth to decline by almost 1.2 percentage points. Decline in the mortality rate owing to the elimination of epidemic diseases, improvement in medical services and the invention of good medicine on the one hand and a modest decline in fertility rate until the end of the 1980s on the other hand resulted in negligible decline in the population growth rate.
A recent influential study on fertility in Pakistan suggests that a decline in fertility began to be witnessed by the end of the 1980s and proceeded apace through 2000. The total fertility rate (TFR) remained constant at 6.8 children per woman since early 1980 and until the end of 1980. The TFR began to decline thereafter and during 1996-2000 it was estimated at 4.8 children per woman. A relatively sharper decline in population growth occurred during 2000-2004. This may be because of various population programs initiated by the Government of Pakistan in the country.
There are no data on the rate of poverty for Faisalabad City, and only spotty data for Pakistan as a whole. We do have data, however on the proportion of the population below the minimum level of dietary energy consumption. This can be taken as a rough measure of poverty for the purposed of tracking its movement over time. Table 6.3 provides the data available for the past two decades. This shows considerable progress in the recent past. In 1980 as many as one-fifth of the city’s population was judged to have less than the minimum level of nourishment. This declined steadily to its present level of about eight percent. It seems quite possible that in the next decade this figure can be brought to zero. Thus it is likely that Faisalabad will meet the first MDG by the target date of 2015.
Table 6.3. Population below minimum dietary consumption
We have no data for Faisalabad on the proportion of primary aged children enrolled in school. We do, however, have data on the proportion starting grade 1 who reach grade 5. These are shown in Table 6.4. These data are not encouraging. Over the past 20 years there has been no progress in the completion rate and it has been quite low. Only half of the children who enter primary school go on to complete grade 5.
Table 6.4. Population of pupil starting grade 1 who reached grade 5
From the data no significant difference was recovered during the last two decades (1980-2000) regarding “Pupil starting grade-1 and reached grade-5”. From the data it can also be perceived that as the population of Faisalabad has been increasing during the specified period, the net enrollment of the pupil in grade-I has also been increasing [Dr. Cheema. If you have net enrollment data for Faisalabad, please include those data in a new column in Table 3.2. Then you can omit the following paragraph and table 3.3 GDNess] but at the same time the rate of drop-out of students has been increasing as well due to which the education level in Faisalabad city has not improved.
A somewhat different picture is obtained when we consider all Pakistan, however. We do have data for enrollment rates for all children and for girls and boys for selected years from 1960 to 1990. We consider that Faisalabad should be somewhat above the total for the country, since it is a major urban center with greater social services than one typically finds in the rural areas. The rural conditions should lower the all Pakistan figures. In this case, the country has raised its primary enrollment rate for all children from 36 percent to 74 percent, or from about one-third to about three quarters.
Table 6.5. Pakistan primary school enrollment rate
The difference in these two data sources presents a common problem for city managers. We often have little data at the city level, and what data we do have is often of unknown quality. Obviously more work needs to be done gathering accurate data on living conditions if the city is to plan more effectively for the welfare of its citizens.
Our main data for this goal will be school enrollment rates. We saw above in table 3.3 that all Pakistan has shown some improvement. In 1960 the enrollment of girls was only 29 percent that of boys. It rose to just above 50 percent by 1975 and has roughly stagnated at that point since. Faisalabad has done better than all Pakistan, as we should imagine, since it is a major urban area.
Data regarding “ratio of girls to boys” in tertiary education was not available. But for primary education during the first decade (1980-90) the data presented in table 3.4 reflects that the value of ratio of girls to boys is fluctuating between 0.66 in 1980 and 0.70 in 1990. After that this ratio increased slowly and steady and raised up to 0.90 in 1994 and 0.97 in 2000.
It can be perceived from the presented data in the table that with the passage of time parents are becoming more aware of the importance of girls education. From the previous discussion of data in Table 6.4 we can see that there is no significant progress in the primary completion rate during the last two decades. Faisalabad has, however, made progress in general equality in school. So it can be concluded from the data that parents’ attitude towards girls’ education is changing with the passage of time and they are realizing the importance of female education in day to day life.
Table 6.6. Ratio of girls to boys in primary and secondary schools
Table 6.7 shows two sets of data on children’s health: the Infant Mortality rate and the Child (under 5) mortality rate. Both rates have shown substantial decline, indicating real progress in this important indicator. The child mortality rate has been cut in half, fro 78 to 34. Greater progress has been made in Infant Mortality, which fell from 89 to only 29 in the pas two decades.
Table 6.7. Child and infant mortality rate
Progress in the Child and Infant Mortality Rates was due to improved health facilities and increased number of doctors and health practitioners in Faisalabad city and also due to the parents’ awareness about the health issues of their children.
Table 6.8 provides data showing progress in a variety of health services and behaviors relevant to maternal health and HIV/AIDS prevention
Table 6.8 Immunization, MMR, birth attendance, condom use, knowledge of HIV/AIDS and CRP
Data regarding 1-year old children immunized against measles shows remarkable progress The table shows that in 1980 the one year old immunized children were only 16 percent in Faisalabad, while this figure rose to 58 percent in 1990 and to 80.00 percent in 2000.
The Material Mortality Rate in city Faisalabad declined significantly from 1980 to 2000. On average we can see that MMR during the first decade (1980-90) was just below 50 while in the next decade (1990-2000) this figure came down to 26 which is about half of the previous one.
The Proportion of births attended by skilled personnel rose significantly. From 1980 to 2000 the rate rose from 34 to 68 percent, doubling in these two decades.Data on Condom, relevant for HIV prevention, are not so complete. The available information reflects that the use of condom for family planning is increasing. Condom use for CPR was only 6 percent in 1980, it became double in 1985 i.e., 12 percent and increased to 18 percent in 1990. It can be said that the use of condom increased about three times during the decade 1980-90. This significance change was only due to advertisement, awareness campaign from Government of Pakistan and the effective efforts of service provider agencies, which not only guide the married couple but also provide the necessary facilities.
HIV/AIDS has become a serious issue for Pakistan and Faisalabad, and government campaigns have addressed the issue. Considerable progress has been made in the past decade in popular understanding of the disease. Data about the population 15-24 years with comprehensive knowledge of HIV/AIDS are not available for first decade 1980-90. In the next decade, however, knowledge about HIV/AIDS has increased significantly. Knowledge about HIV/AIDS was only 12 percent in 1990, and rose to 65 percent in 2000.
The Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (CPR) increased considerably, from only 4 percent in 1980 to 34 percent in 1990, and to near 50 percent in 2000.
It can be assumed that this drastic change within two decades is due to efforts that Government of Pakistan regarding the quality and quantity of family planning services.
Tables 6.9 and 3.8 provide a variety of data on welfare services and health issues for Faisalabad.
Table 6.9. Selected welfare and health data
School Attendance of Orphans shows a weakness in one aspect of the city’s welfare system The ratio of orphan to non-orphan student enrollment is very low and it has not changed in the past two decades. During the last decade (1990-2000) on average this ratio was 0.03.
Death Rates with Malaria show significant improvement. Deaths with malaria in 1980 was 29 percent and was reduced to only 12 percent in 1990 and further to only 2 percent in 2000.
The prevalence of of TB has also shown progress. It fell from just over 3 percent in 1980 to 0.03 in 2000. Thus it has become close to being eliminated.
Table 6.10. Access of water and sanitation
Access to improved water rose smoothly is during the first decade (1980-90). It was 50 percent of total Population in 1980 rising steadily to 55 percent in 1990. In the second decade the percentage fluctuated, first rising to 70 percent, then falling slightly to 63 percent The perceived reason of this decline was rapid population growth and high rate of urbanization.
Better progress was made in access to sanitation. In 1980 only 45 percent of the rural and urban population had access to proper sanitation. This rose steadily to 75 percent in 2000. IN this case the government infrastructure development program has been quite successful.
Population has been increasing in many under developed and developing countries including Pakistan in the world. To improve the standard of living of the population, these countries have been adopting population programs. Many countries have adopted population policies during the last two decades that are anti natalist. Still there are many other countries, in Latin America and Africa, which have not yet formulated population policies. Even in countries which have an official family planning program, population questions seldom receive adequate consideration by planners and policy makers.
First the planning and policy process in most developing countries has a rather short term horizon - generally up to five years - whereas population policies are likely to produce a marked economic impact after one or two decades. Therefore the policy makers often do not fully recognize how their immediate concerns - food deficits, slow economic growth rate, poverty, unemployment - have been accentuated by past population growth and how the continuation of the present population trends will compound development problems in the future. Secondly, the population question is very sensitive issue, and the discussion has been unduly politicized.
Frequently, participants in the debate adopt exaggerated questions. To justify family planning programs, some advocates have attributed most economic difficulties to population pressures. In reaction, others argue that economic development alone can solve the population problems and that such direct measures as family planning programs are ineffective. This polarization has obscured the basic interrelationship between population and economic growth and impeded the formulation of anti natalist programs.
Regarding the Millennium Development Goals, Faisalabad has shown some success and also has further to go to achieve these goals. There has probably been considerable progress made in eliminating extreme poverty. More needs to be done to achieve universal primary education, but gender equality in education has shown good progress. Infant and child mortality have been greatly reduced. Maternal health has been advanced with extended government services and HIV/AIDS prevention has also seen real progress. There are other areas in which government health and sanitation services have been advanced, leading to a higher quality of life for Faisalabad’s citizens. This survey has shown what progress has been made, but it also shows areas where continued efforts must be made to improve the quality of life of the city’s people.